株価暴落の真相は？

　　２７日、日経平均株価が暴落し前日終値から418.28円安の17283円で引けた。米不動産株がこげついたため、ニューヨーク株式市場が急落したことに起因すると報道されている。これまで、円キャリー取引で大きな利益を得ていた米ヘッジファンドが、国内向けにサブ・プライム・ローンと呼ばれる高金利低所得者層向け住宅ローンを証券化し高利益を得てきたが、不良債権になる懸念が高まりその穴埋めに資金を引き上げたことが円高を進め日本市場に更に大きな影響をおよぼした、と大手銀行関連証券アナリストの多くが分析している。

コラム
　　何か腑に落ちない。なぜなら、米住宅市場のバブルは何年も前から多くの専門家が指摘していた。米国のITバブルがはじけた後、景気復活の原動力になったのが不動産市場で、ここに目をつけたのが米ヘッジファンドである事も度々報道されていた。個人が買った不動産はうなぎ上り、転売して資産を増やす事が繰り返され、地上げは膨らんだ。その頃日本で盛んに売り出された投資商品はREIT。米不動産がポートフォリオの大半を占めるファンドだ。同時期、日本の株価と金利が低いため、個人投資家の間で外国国債投資商品が人気を集めた。そのポートフォリオも米国債が大きなパーセンテージを占めていた。
　　一方、２７日必死に自民党を支えている経団連大手企業の株価も下落した。その理由は誰も触れない。大規模なリストラ、労働者の職場環境は劣悪、政府から減税の恩恵を受けることで業績を大きく上げてきた大手企業。これまで、18,000円に近づくとこれらの企業株の確定売りをしていたのは日本国内の信託銀行だと言われている。その親会社は、国内のメガバンクであり弱者をターゲットにしたサラ金と資本提携している。サラ金業界の大赤字で銀行株が売られた矢先、日経平均株価が暴落した。日本の銀行は、公的資金投入、つまり国民の血税で生きることを許され市場空前の利益を上げているにも関わらず、税金を払っていない。つまり、アメリカ経済を支える商品を国民に売っておきながら、サラ金関連の赤字補填、米国不動産市場の悪化、そして参院選が近づき政府への逆風が予想より大きいと判断して、売り抜けようとしたため、その結果、日経平均株価大幅下落の重要な要因になったのではないか。

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What was Behind the Plunging Nikkei Stock Average?

　　On July 27 Nikkei Stock Average took a huge dive and closed down 418.28 yen from the day before at 17283 yen. According to the reports it was because the U.S mortgage market went soar leading to the plunge of the New York market. Until very recently the U.S investment companies specialized in hedge funds that have been making large profits through yen-carry trades gained high returns. They securitized real estate loan portfolio, called sub prime loans, high-yield funds for the low income group. However, many analysts say that the sub prime loan funds were viewed as bad debts and therefore, the hedge funds-specialized companies cashed out to cover the losses, which caused a rise in the exchange rate of yen influencing the stock market in Japan even worse.

Column
　　It doesn't make perfect sense. First, for years many economists pointed out that the U.S housing market was bubbling. Second, after the burst of the U.S IT bubbles, it was the housing market that became a driving force to lift its economy. There came investment companies that would sell hedge funds, which of course had been covered by the press very often. So, it has been well known that real estates individuals had bought got spiral rise, were resold producing increase in assets for those who had sold them, and consequently turned into the hikes of the estates in lands. During the same period in Japan, banks and securities companies actively engaged in selling commodities, called REIT, foreign real estate funds especially the U.S housing stocks dominating the portfolio. Moreover, both stock prices and interest rates in Japan were very low, enhancing popularity of foreign-bonds funds among individual investors in Japan. Again, the U.S bonds occupied a considerable percentage of the funds portfolio.
　　On July 27, the leading companies of Japan that belong to Japan Federation of Economic Organization faced drop in their stock prices. Nobody has really explained about why so far. These companies increased revenue by huge lay-offs, ignoring labor’s poor working environment, and benefits from tax break by the government.
　　In the past few months some analysts said when Nikkei Stock Average came close to 18,000yen, it was the trust banks of Japan that cashed out and thus, the average went down. Those trust banks’ corporate parents are the domestic mega-banks that form a capital alliance with loan sharks targeting the socially vulnerable. In fact, as soon as the loan sharks sank deep into the red resulting in selling bank stocks, Nikkei Stock Average tumbled down last week.
　　When the banks were on the verge of financial crisis, they were bailed out with taxpayers' money. In spite of the fact that they are now making record high profits, they do not pay tax for their revenues. In other words, the banks sold people commodities to support the U.S economy and cashed out because they maybe wanted to cover the loan-sharks-related deficit, knew very well about deteriorating the U.S mortgage market, and saw the wind against the leading parties of the government for the upcoming Upper House election being much stronger than they had thought. This could be the very important factor that led the downward spiral of the stock market in Japan last week.

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